Thursday, December 28, 2006

Escalate Again

Yglesias says:

Roughly speaking, the fixed point of the president's thinking is an unwillingness to admit that the venture has failed. For a long time the best way to do that was to simply deny that there was a problem. Political strategy for the midterms, however, dictated that the president had to acknowledge the public's concerns about the war and concede that things weren't going well. At that point, simply staying the course doesn't work anymore. But de-escalating would be an admission of failure, so the only option is to choose escalation. Thus, the idea of an escalation starts getting pushed and we start reading things int he paper like "Top military officials have said that they are open to sending more U.S. troops to Iraq if there is a specific strategic mission for them." Consider the process here. It's not that the president has some policy initiative in mind whose operational requirements dictate a surge in force levels. Rather, locked in the prison of his own denial he came to the conclusion that he should back an escalation, prompting the current search for a mission.
This strikes me as mostly right and a little bit wrong, but the little bit it gets wrong underpins a larger failing to grasp the true nature of the American problem in Iraq.

I'm getting ahead of myself.

World War II exerts a particularly strong magentism on advocates of the Iraq War. The reasons are obvious, beginning with, of course, the fact that we won. Not only did we win and win unequivocally, but we were a force of unequivocal good that triumphed against a force of unparalleled evil. It was, as the saying goes, the last good war. But from Primo Levi to Kurt Vonnegut, those who actually participated in that war (as opposed to those who merely lionize it now that it's passed into myth)--both combattants and victims--recall no such clarity. It wasn't a good war. It was the most terrible thing that has ever happened in all of our history. It was a conflagration of such unutterable horror that it sullied even its most innocent victims. To view it merely instrumentally--Democracy won and the Nazis lost--is to choose a singular moment of triumph and elevate it above all the horror that came before and after. Even while paying lip service to the bravey and sacrifice and horrors and bloodshed that came before, such a view reduces the war to a singular moment of triumph, and everything else falls away in that view as a kind of moral detritus--regrettable, but ultimately irrelevant to the body of victory.

The corollary attraction to contemporary warhawks is that the war, because it was so good and necessary, and because it was fought against such an evil, was fought without reservation. Though they themselves are almost uniformly unwilling to participate in the actual, physical prosecution of any war, they are nonetheless attracted to the idea of total mobilization because that too is a kind of clarity. It's a curious contradiction, because so many warhawks recently enough imagined themselves cold warriors in the battle against communism. Yet their societal ideal is essentially communistic; it is certainly mechanistic. The war society is a machine, each part mobilized toward the end of victory and the good of the whole. The constant labelling of dissent as treason is attendant to the same worldview.

When these hawks think about escalation, this is what they imagine: a more limited version of national mobilization, and a war in Iraq that consists of endless aerial campaigns, divisions rolling across the desert, cities besieged and bombarded, prisoners rounded up, until the enemy eventually capitulates. That's how they see WWII. That even total mobilization served a discrete strategy, or a series of strategies, is a fact that eludes them. To them, we poured in men and materiel until we won. So contra Yglesias, I don't think the problem is that "locked in the prison of his own denial [Bush] came to the conclusion that he should back an escalation, prompting the current search for a mission." The problem, rather, is that escalation is the mission. Military commanders may yap about not wanting to send more troops without some objective, but to the people who actually matter--whose decisions our commanders will not contravene--the presence of more troops is in and of itself an objective.

For this reason, it's important to avoid the trap of discussing what more troops will or won't achieve. It's immaterial to the conversation. I know that it's infuriating to confront an argument that's entirely a tautology: we'll add more troops so that we can win, and we'll know that we've won when we've achieved victory. Infuriating though it may be, that tautology is the basic principle of American foreign policy. If it is not as we imagine it, then it cannot be. To attempt to dissuade the president or his supporters by pointing out that their plan, such as it is, can't succeed on any terms other than its own, and its own terms are mere semantics, is to ignore the heart of our conundrum: these are people who do not accept a reality external to their own perception. Their morality and their politics are childish because they themselves are children. It is not a question of Randian A-is-A versus Derridian all-is-a-construct. It's only a question of the adult capacity to realize that your perceptions are subjective at least insofar as no person can be a perfectly accurate, perfectly dispassionate observer.

They can't be reasoned with.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think there is a fundemental contrdiction between this post and the part of your last post where you state that "The United States as a world power will outlive us all. Any other doomsaying is just apocalpyic fantasy." I think you are right (mostly) here and wrong there.

IMO the last six years, while certainly consistant in many respects with the past 60 years of United States foriegn policy, is a departure in many respects as well. You have identified in this post one of those departures. While the last 55 years of the 20th century were hardly devoid of mistakes, even during the worst of those times (with the possible eception of Iran-Contra, and yes, Vietnam is not an exception) the failure to accept an external reality was absent.

It's that failure to accept an external reality, along with a number of other factors, which may well herald the end of American power. Of course we only have two more years of this particular extreme denial of reality, but the damage done in Bush's 8 years may well be too much for subsequent administratiosn to unravel. Which, of course, in many ways will be a good thing, if it means the welcome retreat of U.S. power.

Anonymous said...

While contextually I think this was probably pretty clear, I'm using mistake in the sense as a mistake even from the perspective of the Imperialist POV.

IOZ said...

I admit, nony, that I entertain those very thoughts, but shy away from them for fear of overreaching my prophetic allotment . . .

Moloch-Agonistes said...

I dunno. Couldn't it just be tautological p.r.? It seems at least possible that the reason Bush (and Liebreman) want a "surge" is not in fact to "win," tautologically or otherwise, but rather to have twenty thousand or so more troops in the area for--

Well, I'm sure we could think of something.

Isn't there a non-trivial possibility that Bush is consciously feeding bullshit to the press corps he loves so much, the better to direct it towards the American people he has so much respect for? That he has no intention of actually being persuasive, but simply wants to do something without actually describing why he's doing it, despite sustained questioning? That the only plausible explanations are ones he doesn't care to divulge, so he feeds the beast with nonsensical, but consistent slogans? I understand this is a strategy with a fairly long pedigree in politics.

My point: It's one thing to say we shouldn't waste time arguing against dumb propaganda and circular arguments fit only for a brain-damaged gerbil. That is indeed a useless preoccupation, though avoiding it would lead to the demise of all bloggery. It is a rather different thing to say that one's political opponents are in a state of Piagetian juvenility thus can't be dealt with as adults. That would seem to be taking the propaganda just as seriously as Jonah Goldberg might.

If you reject the "we want victory" bullshit as conscious bullshit rather than delusion, but concede that there's no way to get anything else out of them, it means engaging the Bush coterie in the public sphere is useless. Since their strategy from the start has been to destroy the public sphere by making it useless and powerless, that would mean they've won, and either that public sphere has to be repaired in a away that compels them not to talk bullshit -- no luck so far -- or pressure in some other venue than the public sphere will have to be applied.

If you accept "we want victory" "victory means we win" bullshit as an honest expression of intent, then it means that Bush is clinically insane and everyone else in the White House is going along for the ride. I can't find any meaning in that scenario. I don't think it has any productive strategic implications at all, so I prefer to ignore the possibility.

Summing up: I agree that one shouldn't argue with obvious bullshit. But I disagree that repeatedly uttering obvious bullshit makes one automatically a fool. It could indicate a knave with excessively high regard for his own marketing techniques.

Why not go with the scenario that leaves you room to act, see where it takes you?

Moloch-Agonistes said...

Animadversions on the marketing theme: is Coca Cola "plausible" as a delicious beverage? Is a diamond "plausible" as an attractive gemstone? Isn't most consumer marketing tautological in the sense of offering the proposition: "you need x because x is necessary"?

To say that this is unreasonable is not to say that the people who offer such slogans are out of touch with reality. If you don't like them selling so much of it, you either try to beat their unreasonable p.r. with more unreason (e.g. Pepsico, DailyKos) or with superior community organizing (e.g. consumer boycott), or with violence, or with a shareholder revolt, or by convincing their daddy it's unhealthy, or any number of other ways. But yelling at the television set every time a dumb commercial comes on would seem to be just as regressive as taking its advice.

IOZ said...

M_a: Maybe you should take over here. Your slumbers, I think, are less dogmatic than mine. Tee-hee. Though the quesion remains: with what do you beat them?

hipparchia said...

yep. that's the question.

Moloch-Agonistes said...

I read a great line today in a famous article by the historian David Herlihy. He had just introduced a completely new quantitative approach to medieval history (compiling information on tens of thousands of sellers from real estate deeds in monastery archives and looking at secular/geographical trends), and expected that dusty old farts would protest. "To prove the pudding," he wrote, "is eventually to eat it, and the proof of this method must ultimately be the value of its conclusions, judged by the same criteria which other historical generalizations are judged, by the sense they make, by how much they explain."

Here too, I think, to prove the pudding is eventually to eat it. I mean, it's not about saying definitively, "This is the right way." If we knew the right way we'd have done it, and Bush would now be crouched on all fours in his lonely exile on Reunion behind a pile of Colombian pure.

I think it's about something slightly different: thinking what kinds of approaches are plausible given who is in power and what they seem to want, ticking through them one by one, then choosing a moment and going for it.

For me right now, it's about trying to build an effective community that has its eyes on the prize (just distribution, thoughtful political arrangements, kind but hardheaded interactions) and yet is good at using social leverage to get there. The only direct interventive strategies I can think of are either ineffective (Daddy), undesirable (violence) or essential, but likely to be impotent--at least, they only have meaningful effect in a cumulative sense (litigation, public dissent, solidarity with the people we're screwing over). I, too, though, am open to suggestions.

Anyway that's the lovely old world we're stuck with. A world where Saddam fucking Hussein meets his maker as an honest to god and dignified martyr to mob rule and vengeance rather than a war criminal--with his asphyxiation timed to the dead news cycle on Friday evening EST because someone thought it might harsh on the launch of the new White House marketing campaign next week. Bush happened because we fucked up, and we're responsible forever, and there ain't nothin gonna take that back, and now for the moment I figure we have to lie back and think of England.

PS: God forbid that anyone should take over for you. You're doing us all good--and I think you're doing yourself good, too, and that seems to me valuable in its own right. I remember some point not too long ago when the roles were reversed, and I was like, "shut up IOZ with you theory--what do we do? So maybe now I can return the favor. I'm just a buddy helping my buddies out, after all.

Anonymous said...

I'm inclined to think that part of the answer is the moment when the American public realizes that the war on Islam is going to mean either (a) a series of disasterous defeats piling upon one another, or (b) costs in blood and treasure that will make the cold war seem like a walk in the park.

Because, you see, in the LONG run this shit doesn't happen without the support of the American public. Fact is the public wants it's empire - but it wants it on the cheap, and doesn't like losing.

Of course that's the long run - in the short run, I don't think there is much we can do.

And sadly, things like the basic immorality of what we are doing don't persuade. So sure, keep on speaking the truth about the monsters who govern us, but don't count on that stuff to make a difference. I mean, not only CAN it happen here, but I'm convinced that the public here is MORE disposed to let it happen than the Germans were in the middle of the past century. The only reason we haven't descended to quite those depths is that we have a reasonably well designed set of institutions preventing it. Of course, those institutions are under attack every day.