Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Just Dropped In To See What Condition My Condition Was In

The United States invaded Iraq and deposed its leader, who was later captured and executed. Under Saddam Hussein, Iraq was a non-ideological, military-police state whose Ba'athist government combined bits of pan-Arabism with Iraqi Nationalism with pseudosocialism with market kleptocracy with Gulf Oil State. Following the ouster of Saddam and his government, the United States estabilished a proconsular government. It was the position of the United States that the Ba'ath Party was the functional equivalent of the Nazi Party, and so began the process of de-Ba'athification. Of course, the Ba'ath Party was not all that similiar to the Nazi Party, functionally or otherwise. It was, for one thing, around for longer. To advance in the military, or to pursue a professional career, or to find work in the oil industry--or for a thousand other entirely mundane reasons--you'd have to join the Ba'ath Party. Which makes the more accurate (and more obvious) equation between the Ba'ath Party in Iraq and the Communist Party in the USSR. Can you imagine, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the purging of Party Members from civil, military, and professional society? It would have been impossible.

Fortunately, no American with sufficient influence to stem this decision was troubled by perspective, and the United States purged military, civil and professional Iraq of Ba'ath Party members. Of course, under Ba'ath Party dictatorship, there were no opposition parties, no political organizations, no independent labor unions. The only substantial units of social organization outside of the official party were familiail, religious, and ethnic. Clan. Tribe. Sect. Naturally, then, when the government collapsed and political organization became necessary in order to acquire influence in the "new Iraq," organization occured not ideologically but ethnoreligiously. Naturally, since the United States imposed a system of proportional representation (believing, obscenely absurdly, that proportional government would abnegate potential sectarian divisiveness--a fair shake for all, and all that), the majority ethnic group took over. Naturally, the former ruling minority looked askance at such a development. Naturally, they rebelled against their occupiers and a government percieved at once as in bed with the occupying United States and in bed with the hated neighbor, Iran, against whom the Sunni minority had waged an 8-year war at the cost of a million Iraq lives.

The United States, limitless political savant that we are, simply began demanding that the government reach "accommodation." That it reach "consensus." That it "form a unity government." That it "solve" its "political crisis." Each of these is a euphemism. What do they actually mean?

What they mean is that the United States would now like the newly empowered Shi'ite majority to voluntarily devolve some of its own political power to the very Sunni Arabs who formerly ruled Iraq. You may remember them as the ones we once tried to purge from life in Iraq. Not to compromise on some particular piece of legislation, but to willingly, openly, and freely undercut the advantage of its own numerical advantage in order to quiet the agitation of restive parties. What could possibly impede such a request? Perhaps that Nouri al-Maliki is constrained by more hard-line Shia factions within his own governing bloc. Perhaps that even were that not the case, Nouri al-Maliki is a Shi'ite politican, and like any politician anywhere at any time, his first interest is in acquiring and preserving power for those who share his politics. I'm sure we can think of some more reasons if only we put on our thinking caps.

Now Carl Levin, a Democrat, has become the first major politician to publicly propose an idea formerly floated by right-wing war supporters. A coup! My goodness, it's almost as if there's a certain bipartisan foreign policy consensus, grounded in American exceptionalism, committed to imperial aims, that renders any claims that Democrats constitute an opposition ridiculous on their face. The idea here is that somewhere in Iraq there is a Pharaoh who will unite the Upper and Lower Kingdoms. He would speak a language of national unity that would appeal to American domestic necessity. He would be staunchly opposed to Iranian influence. He would be willing in certain circumstances to act as an American proxy in the region. He would be able to train and equip a military that could maintain domestic order and police Iraq's borders. He would be Saddam Hussein, if we hadn't lynched him already. Whoops. Guess we really are screwed, Carl.

26 comments:

Brian said...

Why does none of our pundit class understand this albeit simplified view of what is? Does suckling on the teat of empire mean you lose all ability to understand reality or history or likely trends?

Ioz for Humungous! Ioz will save us all! :)

IOZ said...

I don't think it's particularly simplified, to be honest.

Brian said...

No, of course not. That was a bad turn of phrase. I'm just trying to forestall the good old debating technique of "Wellllll....it's more complicated than that because (insert relatively minor detail or quibble).

It was an excellent essay. One that our politicians and military command should theoretically be able to understand, but obviously cannot.

Crusader AXE said...

I've been mulling the idea over and believe that we're really screwed because Saddam was really the 25th Iman.

IOZ has elegantly shredded the socio-politico-historical framework for the various "plans" -- if fantasy and hope are plans -- so I'll just lean toward the analogy. Once there was a country with three predominate ethnic groups that, while actually linguistically and ethnically the same, were separated by religion. They had been slung together like a dog's breakfast or a cat's furball after World War I. As a nation state, they were pretty pathetic, and when occupied by the Nazis, various parts of the nation collaborated or worse while others got involved with the communists or the British. (Which, given the prominence of Kim Philby in SIS, was pretty much the same thing.) Following the war, a strong man emerged and ruled well for a long time. Neither Thomas Jefferson nor Stalin, but somewhere in between. Tolerance, cooperation and economic prosperity reigned. He died. Things fell apart. The country split, acrimoniously, and lots of people died.

Not exactly the same, Saddam and his predecessors were not Tito. Still, things weren't that bad for the Iraqis...the whole ethnic cleansing thing involving the Kurds is pretty sad, of course -- except the Kurds were trying to seceed from Iraq and form independent Kurdistan, another imaginary creation of SIS, CIA and there you have the rest of the story...The problem with Yugoslavia was that it was a bad idea; the problem with Iraq is that it is a bad idea, festering lo these many years and now we uncorked the bottle.

Rojo said...

If I recall correctly, the coup against Ngo Dinh Diem really turned that whole Vietnam project around. The resulting parade of corrupt generals just shone with halos of legitimacy, capturing hearts and minds as if they were dolphins in a deep sea trawler's net!

Justin said...

Gutterballs...

Aaron said...

The worst thing about the Nazi analogy (Saddam was always very open about his Uncle Joe fetish) is that it was such an egregious example of believing one's own their own propaganda. For Cheney's rolodex, World War II was an appealing model on several fronts: it made Bush into Churchill; America a liberator; justified a Marshall Plan in which economies could be made over by us in the most congenial fashion; gave the Holocaust-worshiping Podhoretz/Netanyahu contingent a delicious frisson; and of course, inaugurated the Cold War, Cheney's evolutionary niche. With a precedent this convenient, how could the "Ba'athists" fail to oblige?

The point about clan allegience (a.k.a. warlordism) being a measure of social upheaval is one of those obvious facts that Middle East historians have been screaming oh-so-decorously-and-inaudibly about since late 2001, but you may muddle it a bit with the reference to proportional representation. There is a convoluted relationship in Iraq between clan affiliation and ethno-religious identity. Some clans are mixed, some are not; some use religious identity as the basis for, say, marriage alliances, others don't really give a shit.

It's complicated further by the fact that the line between "Sunni" and "Shia" is anything but clear. In Iraq, like other Muslim societies, most popular observance includes quite a bit of saint-worship--sometimes called "Sufism"--which leads even nominal Sunnis to approximate Shiism in many ways, being a sort of microcosm of the wilayat al-faqih, especially when the saints in question are affiliated with the "other" side. Stamping this ambiguity out is one of the Saudis' (a.k.a. al-Qaida's) ideological objectives in their war effort. Almost no success so far.

My point is that "ethnic" political organization and "clan" political organization don't naturally coincide. The second of them is very bottom-up, the first of them is almost always top-down. Everyone wants to harness the power of clan and militia leaders to whom power devolved after we took a monkey wrench to Saddam's organization, but exactly how that's to be done is--well, as mysterious as any other political and social mobilization. "Clan," "tribe," and "sect" do not follow in a seamless progression.

So far as I can see there are three models of socio-political organization visible in Iraq. The first, national dictatorship, we destroyed. It was replaced by clan affiliation, a trend that has a number of downsides from the Cheneyist perspective, inter alia its congeniality to guerilla warfare and the difficulties it presents for stuff like hijacking the Iraqi oil industry. For fairly contingent reasons (absence of WMD, Bush's fatuousness, pretensions of the neocons, friendliness with Shiite opportunists, panic), they decided to go with a proportional assembly as a counterweight. They gave the force of sovereignty to a sectarian symbolic apparatus.

It now slowly dawning on some U.S. policymakers that sectarian semiotics isn't much better for "American interests" than the semiotics of blood affliliation. And that's why, as you point out, some of them are longing once again for national dictatorship, certainly the most efficient way of extracting resources from a poorer and less powerful society. That, too, was predictable--and predicted--back in late 2002. I do think that Iraq in its present state is probably not capable of cooperating, if that's any consolation, but we'll see. The irony is that if the U.S. military were withdrawn tomorrow and all the dough we're spending on the war were handed over to some competent maniac in bricks of twenties, Cheney's foreign policy objectives would be far better served than by the present policy. Of course he can't do that at this point, for conceptual reasons as much as political ones.

IOZ said...

I don't think I was making the point that "ethnic," "religious," "sect," and "clan" (or any other terms I may have used) were synonymous. Only that these represent the avenues for social organization when strictly "political" opposition is not an option.

IOZ said...

Although, to be clear, I do take issue with the notion that "Sunni" and "Shia" are unclear categories. Sure, there's all sorts of gray, but there is a substantial theological schism between these two groups, as concrete as any in the Christian world.

JYD said...

goddamn, aaron, that's complex. i'm glad our culture makes sense. you know, where (some) bluecollar union guys support the democrats, except when a)black or b)uppity women [(unless they happen to be black or uppity (or both)]; unless the republican's pro-NAFTA, in which case it's back to the democrats, especially if they have children in the free-lunch program...unless they're christian and don't abide the pro-choice movement...etc, etc.

and this should not be construed as a jab. more @ agreeing that things make more sense within the framework of one's native culture. i think there was some self-deprecating humor in there too, somewhere.

Aaron said...

jyd--
I don't think it has anything to do with "culture." It has to do with willingness to learn about other places. We've been actively fucking with Iraq since 1990, surely that's enough time. This business of "making sense within one's native culture" is kind of a cop-out, isn't it?

IOZ--
Theology =/ society. Any difference is clear and distinct on paper. How those symbols correlate to the way people group together is a question of power and its centralization. The fact is that almost all Iraqis venerate e.g. Imam Musa al-Kadhim.

IOZ said...

Well, almost all Eastern Rite Christians venerate the Virgin Mary, but no one calls them Roman Catholics. Eh? I think you're arguing something that I'm not arguing.

Prof. George Edward Challenger said...

Tonight on "When Puppets Disappoint: Special Strongman Unit."

We need a strongman without that religiony aftertaste, like Saddam without all the Kuwaiti-WMD baggage. Or a Shi'ite Idi Amin Dada with like 10% less paranoia. Or a non-religious Iraqi Ferdinand Marcos whose wife has a shoe fetish. Too bad Leona Helmsley died, she'd be perfect.

I know if I were looking to replace a spineless puppet with a friendly strongman during one of those tour d' france or coup d' etat things, I'd ask the CIA. But what do I know.

JYD said...

not my point at all. what i'm saying is, the average american has some general sense of how another american person is going to behave based his previous experiences and cultural awareness. unversed in the history of the mid-east region, it IS confusing to the average american why sunni X hates shia Y, but not shia Z. (or whatever.)

the point i'm making is actually an affirmation of your point: if you look at all the information, it's really NOT that hard to predict how various iraqi sects will react to policy A or policy B. (i mean, aside from the fact that "they hate our policies" is generally understood.)

further: although it behooves a conscientious citizen to "learn about other places [that your government is fucking up]", most people have neither the time nor inclination to bother with it. my point (re: "making sense...") was that behaviors that make no sense to the avg american make perfect sense to any iraqi. like, an iraqi would likely be flummoxed by my previous statement, whereas an american could read my previous (and, admittedly muddled) thought and kinda make sense of it. ultimately, my point was that if americans just stopped to consider their own "complicated" social fabric, they might not find it so daunting to figure out someone else's.

Aaron said...

Well, kid, unless "Eastern Rite Christianity" disputes the virgin birth and/or Mary's maternal relationship to God I guess it's not a very good analogy. And since you made of point of arguing a clear and necessary distinction between Shiites and Sunnis (not Shia and Sunni doctrine) I think we have a somewhat substantive disagreement there, though it's not clear to me how much information you base your end of the argument on.

My original point though was just that centralized (sectarian) and decentralized (clan) political strategies are pretty different. The second of them is an improvised reaction to chaos, while the first is something that ambitious people have to work at. Clan dominance in present-day Iraq came about because of the failure to assert control; sectarian politics by contrast was an outcome of particular choices by Americans, Saudis, Iraqis, Iranians etc. It wasn't just an accident waiting to happen, as you imply.

Aaron said...

jyd--
OK, gotcha!

IOZ said...

Do I imply that?

And let's not get into a "where I get my information" argument on a blog, fer the Prophet's sake. You're imputing some identity essentializing that's really, really, surely, upon my tenth reading of my original post, not there. If you've found me to be arguing that Iraqi identity, unqiue among peoples of the world, is confined to a singular affiliation to this or that, then . . . well.

If, on the other hand, you're arguing that there isn't a substantial split between non-Kurdish Shia and Sunni Iraqis dating at least from land policy in the British protectorate, then . . . well.

Aaron said...

You're being stubborn, but I was somewhat confrontational, so it's probably just deserts. My point was that in practice, as social groups, "Sunni" and "Shi'a" are ambiguous. Popular observance, family affiliations, and fifteen hundred years of customary behavior make the distinction an artificial one. When it was in their interest for example the Sunni Ottomans subsidized quasi-Shiite Janissaries, guilds, Sufi orders, and so on.

You responded that Sunni and Shia are distinct abstract categories, which is true--I never said otherwise--but implies that sectarianism was a "natural" way of grouping society after the collapse of Saddam's Baath, something people could simply fall into, just as they fell back on clan. That implication is what I was taking issue with. Theological doctrines and family relations are different orders of things, and assuming that they're equally concrete can lead to some dangerous misjudgments.

As for "information"--I'm just sayin. The fetish by Iraqi Sunnis for the Seventh Imam of the Twelver Shiites and the fetish of Jacobites for the Mother of God aren't in any way analogous, and making the parallel doesn't strengthen your argument.

An enjoyable exchange, as always, but I gotta go.

David said...

Wow: while Diem and Malaki may not a rhyme make, history sure does seem to repeat itself!

puppylander said...

hi brian,

i don't think aaron got your memo re: simplification. please be sure to cc him in the future.

Brian said...

Alas, puppylander, Mr. Aaron's profile is hidden. He must remain outside the loop :)

Anonymous said...

Hahahahahaha!!! Even CNN gets it: http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/08/22/iraq.democracy/index.html

YF

Aaron said...

Obviously, I was stoned. Alas for the sweet days of summer; they passeth all too soon.

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