The President was positive in July; the GAO is negative now; "General Petraeus" will be cautiously optimistic in September. Fortunately or unfortunately, none of it means anything.
As is the habit of much of the Democratic-Party-aligned antiwar set, great import, if not great credence, is given to these various reports and plans and programs and studies. Every month or so, a new one provides an Aha! moment. Details are parsed; obfuscations are untangled; doublespeak is singly spoken. The idea is that through close reading, the details of these reports will substantiate factional claims about the nature of the Occupation. I can understand war supporters desperately seeking good news, but for the supposed antiwar set to waste its time on all this is folly.
Let's be conscious: The government that produces these reports--whether they're upbeat or downbeat in specific tone--is the same government whose military is currently an occupying power. That makes the reports useful as guides into the internal disputes in the Grand Court of Washington, but reveals nothing about Iraq itself. The GAO report finds "little progress" because the Iraqi government has "failed to meet all but three of 18 congressionally mandated benchmarks for political and military progress." How this can be considered a meaningful metric of "success" or "failure" is beyond me. The benchmarks are arbitrary; the mandates are non-binding; and all of it is occurring in the halls of Washington. Good governance benchmarks dreamed up by our own dysfunctional legislature for application by a powerless government garrisoned and gaurded in an island fortress in the middle of a war zone aren't worth the newsprint they're repeated on. Reports on the "military success" of Escalation, meanwhile, are inevitably Archimedian: they relate only to displacement.
Opposing the war meaningfully requires a committment not to the premise that the war cannot succeed, but rather to the premise that the war itself is a grave wrong. Set aside complaints about "shifting definitions of success in Iraq." Why not be frank? Success in Iraq means the conquest and pacification of a foreign nation. Our opposition can't be grounded in the impracticability of this task. It must be grounded in the wrongness of the project itself, success be damned.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
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11 comments:
My favorite part of Ignatius' Op-Ed is where Nancy Pelosi seized control of the CIA in 2005. Ignatius is either a shill or on crack.
well that's like, your opinion, man.
mine too, as it happens.
Of course, I think that the Iraq adventure is really, really wrong. However, I am hesitant to talk at length about democratic values, morality or that sort of stuff because I do not want to sound like a Republican Senator from Idaho or Louisiana in anyway. Besides, we can fault this on so many other grounds that matters of faith, morals, ethics, good or bad are not
Geopolitically, this one was a really idiotic endeavor, driven as much by ignorance as by hubris; by gross stupidity as by greed. Economically, this one was driven by assumptions that proved false during Domitian's fabulous, absolutely fabulous reign. From a social science perspective, this debacle will provide future doctoral students pages of fresh topics on the destruction of civil society, generational conflict, political instability, and cultural decline. And, that's only looking at the US. Add the actual battleground area and environs, and we have created the perfect grad student in need of the perfect dissertation topic storm.
Militarily, it's the worst idea since Varus decided it would be fun to trust his drinking buddy Herman and trasp into the Teutonberger Wald, in column and march through this long, long, long defile of treelined narrow valleys. With camp followers...which, I guess we did in terms of all the contractors who've come along for the ride and gotten killed.
God. All you guys quoting Latin history and such. We are AMERICA. The Indispensible Nation. The City on the Hill. We CANNOT lose! Unless the libs backstab us. The Surge is BRILLIANT. Brilliant, I say.
Maybe if we ignore them, they'll go away? Surely, we're bound to run out of money/credit sooner or later.
Not with a bang but with a whimper, that's my great hope. Always the optimist, I.
Check out the mighty Kos on why Hill, Obama, and Edwards are dodging the question on how many troops they would leave in Iraq: "Why would they dodge? It's not from fear of alienating the Democratic primary electorate. The clearer the stance on getting the hell out of Iraq, the more applause they'll get. It can't be from fear of alienating the general electorate. Independents want out of Iraq just as badly as Democrats. And it can't be from fear of alienating the war mongers. Those 25% dead-enders aren't abandoning their GOP heroes.
So what can it be?"
Er, perhaps that they are imperialists that plant to stay?
No, no, you silly anarchist you (actually, I mean me), Kos the infallible declares it's fear of David Broder and Joe Klein!
And then complains mockingly about the "Very Serious People!" Because his is some very "serious" analysis indeed.
Ioz,
The government that produces these reports--whether they're upbeat or downbeat in specific tone--is the same government whose military is currently an occupying power
This Ollie Stone view of the federal government just won't fly. The gov't is not a monolithic entity with identical goals. It's a series of competing factions.
Consider: the GAO takes the White House to task for failing the "de-Baathification" priority. But as you've said yourself, re-Baathification is now the order of the day. Accomodate those Sunnis! Put those militias to work! Oceania has always been an ally of Eastasia, etc.
We're reminded of nothing so much as Caligula, who made the Praetorian Guard's watchword something humiliating every day in order to giggle at stern Cassius Chaerea. Someone changed the watchword again and didn't tell him.
I don't think it's a monolithic view of government, and I agree with what you say. My point isn't that this is all churned out by a central mill, but that even the "competing factions" as you concisely put it share certain fundamental assumptions. I think I acknowledge your point implicitly when I note that the reports are guides to internal Washington disputes in the following sentence.
Agree on most of this. I would have put the last paragraph differently. I suppose it depends upon how you define "meaningful." If you mean meaningful in the sense of bringing about a much needed sea change in our foreign policy, then of course you are correct. But as you have stated correctly many times in the past, most of the "progressive" opponents of the war still buy into the basic foreign policy consensus (the more efficient, ostensibly somewhat less bloody faction), so good luck with that.
But if we are talking about Iraq in particular ... well, in some sense I'm more cynical than you are. I'm not optimistic that either strategy described is going to get us out of there. I am, perhaps, marginally more optimistic that other factors will get us out, although the impending war with Iran complicates that issue. But I somehow doubt that whether or not the anti-war left adopts a consistent policy of anti-intervention is going make a difference one way or another with regard to Iraq. (Note that I think it MIGHT make a difference if the anti-war left look more of a moral stance in opposition to Iran, where it would have at least some chance of making a difference. I'm disgusted that so much of the opposition to the impending attack on Iran is on prudential rather than moral grounds).
Moreover, and I think you know this, there are a plenty of opponents of the war who DO think that the whole enterprise was, as you say, a grave wrong from the start, and they say as much, but also use other arguments, i.e., lack of success in the enterprise, in order to reach those who don't share their views on the inherent immorality of the war. Now you can argue that such rhetorical strategy is a mistake, and I increasingly agree that it is (or at least isn't efficacious), but there isn't anything inconsistent about it. It's not as if the anti war left is saying that we should try other methods of success; they are saying thas success isn't happening, let's go home.
But more and more this seems almost like an empty debate. The attack on Iran is right around the corner, and that is going to be a horror (in the moral sense) that will make the continued occupation of Iraq look like a picnic.
I can't find much to disagree with there. You've state the case very precisely.
The trouble I have with "saying that success isn't happening, let's go home" is that it leaves so much open to the warmongers. "There, you see," they'll cry, "these spinless liberals want us to cut and run." It also is easy for them to counter by saying, "Success is just around the corner -- hang in there, baby!"
As easy it is for me to say -- I'm in my late 50s, way past the age where I'd be able to get into the military to participate in these charming imperialist adventures that both the Repubs and the Dems are so fond of -- I don't see "success isn't happening" by itself as a valid excuse for ending a war. If the US had had good reasons for invading Iraq, it would behoove us to continue fighting against all odds, even if things went badly for us. "Success isn't happening" would be a handy excuse for the very insurgents who are fighting us now; after all, the occupiers are still there, killing and maiming Iraqis. Why not surrender to us?
Are there really many opponents of the war who "in order to reach those who don't share their views on the inherent immorality of the war"? And does it work? Anonymous seems to think it doesn't. Maybe these fiery antiwar types should try telling the truth, if only because I doubt one can be very convincing while pretending to a position one doesn't hold.
And I really don't understand why it's a waste of time to insist on the fundamental criminality of the US war in Iraq, but okay to insist on the fundamental criminality of our upcoming war in Iran, coming soon to a theatre of war near you. I mean, aren't there people who won't share "our" particular geopolitical beliefs, who could be reached if we'd argue on in terms they would understand, such as that Iranis have cooties and we must not allow Our Boys to be exposed to that? Or that Iran will be *another* quagmire, which will make the continued occupation of Iraq look like a Sunday school picnic?
I don't believe, for what it's worth, that "either strategy described is going to get us out of" Iraq, because as far as I'm concerned, saying that it's a criminal war is not a "strategy." But neither is saying that "it's not a success, let's get out of there." A strategy would be a course of action, like organizing Iraq veterans and their families. A strategy would also be a planned response to the warmongers' certain attacks on the bona fides of those who oppose the war -- especially, not to be frightened by them. It's certainly possible and valid to work toward a shared goal with people whose understanding of the whys and wherefores are different from one's own. But those putative allies must feel the same way: that they are willing to work with someone who believes that the war in Iraq was criminal aggression from the beginning, regardless of its success. I don't believe it's even necessary to pretend to believe something I don't, and I'm very suspicious of anyone who (oh, so reasonably!) tries to persuade me to do that.
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