Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Throwing the Well-Armed Baby out with the Bathwater

I've been observing discussions here and elsewhere about the immigration debate with increasing anxiety that the Republicans are going to get away with yet another misdirection perfectly designed to derail progressive hopes and dreams by stroking America's lizard brain. The election feels eerily reminiscent of 1992, when so-called reasonable centrists stoked the crazy man Ross Perot's campaign by backing his obsessive concern for "the deficit" which was nothing more than a weird abstraction into which misinformed discontented voters could pour their economic fears.

-Digs
I come not to praise H. Ross Perot, but to bury him. Actually, I agree that he was more or less nuts, although in a uniformly entertaining and wholly healthy way. Yanking 20% of the vote out of the pot in a Presidential election year was a neat trick, probably the only real scare that our famed bipartisan system--as in, "I believe in the bipartisan system"--has had in many years, and it just went to show what a Quixote can do with a billion dollars in the bank. No one entirely sane by our ordinary lights would ever a.) make a billion bucks or b.) run for president in the first place, so complaining that Perot was nuts seems narrow and uncharitable.

"The deficit" was real, of course--I mean, it represented fiscal reality, that the federal government's operating expenditures exceeded its revenues. Now it is popular to say that "deficits don't matter," insofar as a.) government revenues and expenditures are largely fictions anyway and b.) because the children are our future. What wiser wags will tell you is that deficits don't necessarily reflect intrinsic failures of an organization's fiscal policy from year to year, and that it is sometimes perfectly reasonable to operate for a year--or two, or more--at a loss. Non-profits, businesses, and governments of all levels do it for plenty of legitimate reasons, usually to maintain current levels of programming and production and subsidy and whathaveyou through leaner revenue years. But running in the red is hedged against some projected future revenue that will make up for the loss and the service on any debt incurred in the process, or is supposed to be in any case. The question of the federal deficit is a question of persistent deficits and a relentlessly compounding debt. There's a certain tragic irony here, since the deficit requires borrowing which causes debt which charges interest which contributes to operating costs which causes the deficit which requires borrowing . . . These aren't high-church economicisms. Every family has faced these principles.

Digby complains that the surplusses of the Clinton bubble years should have been used to "finance new initiatives for the public," and "finance" is the unintentionally, hilariously felicitous word. Surplusses should have been spent on reducing debt, not on building future costs. In any case, "initiatives for the public" or giveaways to the rich are staggeringly irrelevant compared to the cost of war, and in fact the debt service that we pay every year is largely a camouflage for what is in fact war spending: debts incurred for prior imperial ventures and added onto by the going one. As noted elsewhere and otherwise, the only real way to reduce the national debt and to limit the costs and scope of government is to stop fighting wars. You will curiously enough not find that much discussed, neither by Club for Growth types nor by Reasonoids, the latter of which persists in lazy agnosticism when it comes to war and peace. For the former, well, I always laugh when I hear Norquist types talk about drowning the government in the bathtub when they are unwilling to tamper with the half-trillion-dollar army hanging out in the bathroom with its shrunken boss.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

I would note that our government has been engaging in imperialistic wars longer than it has been handing out a government provided pension plan. Assuming we maintain current revenue levels (including maintaining FICA), wouldn't eliminating social security benefits seem to be a smaller departure from our historic course of conduct? Nothing normative here, just speculating as to which expenditures are more near and dear to our national identity.

YF

IOZ said...

Social Security isn't in the operating budget and has, as you note, a seperate revenue stream. It would have no net effect on indebtedness or operating deficiency one way or other. It's presence or absence, in other words, has got nothing to do with anything--precisely the characterstic that seems to attract you most strongly to an argument.

Anonymous said...

good point Ioz, I mean it's not like revenue dollars are fungible or anything. Good thing this untouchable revenue source has never been used for any non SS expenditures.

YF

IOZ said...

Well that's what you call "drawing on the endowment." If your question is: Could the US maintain its present, aggregate income from all sources and use it more directly to continue its imperial ventures, the answer is sure, until those in turn grew equally unwieldy, which they inevitably would. Your question isn't about social security. It's about whether or not empires are capable of raising revenues to fund their own expansion. Hey, holy shit, yeah, they are!

Leonard said...

the only real way to reduce the national debt and to limit the costs and scope of government is to stop fighting wars.

This is doubtful. Most European states, to take about 15 examples, are far more peaceful than the USA without any notable superiority in costs and scope of government.

Of course, you might argue that the USA is unique, that the size of our government is constrained by some mechanism other than the amount of money it can squeeze out of its subjects. But I'm doubting that. Government spending is the typical way by which states create dependent classes. In Europe, more people are on the dole, in state-funded education, etc. Here we have the military itself, along with the military-industrial complex. In both cases, the end of the state is served. Pigs who have managed to jockey into position at the trough are notoriously apt to vote for more slop. If the USA had not happened to be able to easily justify a large defense establishment when it finally broke out of the Constitutional taxation straitjacket, it would have found some other way to spend the money to create dependent classes.

Now, I think it is worthwhile pointing out that paying people to dig holes and fill them up, or get useless educations, is morally superior to paying them to build bombs and kill foreigners. Delegitimizing war is its own reward. But if you really want to decrease total spending, you need to look at deep reforms.

Keifus said...

Well leonard, you can certainly look at the big numbers (from wikipedia, but hey): entitlements (not including social security) are about $900 billion per year, budgeted defense is about $620 billion (not including about a hundred billion extra or so for the occupation), debt (surely the minimum payment) is $260 billion.

Regardless of what the French may be spending their money on, those quantities are certainly comparable...and I know what I'd rather be buying.

Anonymous said...

i have not looked at the raw data in a while but my vague memory is that during Clinton years :
total debt was about the same or increased slightly . how ever if you take social security surplus out there was an actual INCREASE in debt in his term .
what decreased were budget deficits ( again largely due to SC surpluses ) as well as total debt as a ratio of GDP ( which does have consequences . bigger the pie easier it to deal with a problem ) .
so this Clinton reduced debt is bit misleading .
badri

cb said...

A-fucking-men, ioz.

mistah charley, ph.d. said...

Speaking of babies and bathtubs, I first heard the following on an album by the British band Cream.

____________

http://www.odps.org/slangb.html

Seems to be by 'anonymous'. It was written using Cockney dialect, and this is the way it should be read. Please use as real a Cockney accent as possible and try to avoid that excerable version attempted by Dick van Dyke in Mary Poppins!:

Dahn the Plug 'Ole

A muvver was barfin 'er biby one night,
The youngest of ten and a tiny young mite,
The muvver was poor and the biby was thin,
Only a skelington covered in skin;
The muvver turned rahnd for the soap off the rack,
She was but a moment, but when she turned back,
The biby was gorn; and in anguish she cried,
Oh, where is my biby?' - and the angels replied:

Your biby 'as fell dahn the plug-'ole,
Your biby 'as gorn dahn the plug;
The poor little thing was so skinny and thin
E oughter been barfed in a jug;
Your biby is perfeckly 'appy,
E won't need a barf any more,
Your biby 'as fell dahn the plug 'ole
Not lorst....... but gorn before!