Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Take a Chill Pill

Tom Friedman would've made a wonderful Cold Warrior. He was born too late. He could've risen right to the top at State, given his preternatural ability to look at the Party parade and from it assess the vitality of the enemy. Dazzled by trains, planes, and cell phones, he seems to be ignorant of the fact that a couple of hundred million Chinese live on less than a dollar a day, and that well over a billion of them live in what to an American would seem to be grinding, impossible poverty. A billion! And when I say ignorant of the fact, I don't mean that he turns a blind eye to it. I don't mean that he ignores it because it doesn't fit his model. I mean, he actually does not know that this is the case.

Now Didion once noted that when the ruling class wishes to dismiss the lived experience of the ruled, it does so by calling their lives and worries "anecdotal." Not everything is best understood as a statistical abstract. A mind that can only look at the numbers is a self-limiting intellect. But still: mere anecdote unmoored from context is just bullshit. China is poor, polluted, and has one of the smallest per capita acreages of arable, cultivated land among all the nations on this earth. They have a way yet to go.

Meanwhile, what was the last major technological or scientific innovation to come out of China? This is a serious question. It would be nice if our airports were shinier, our flights less delayed, and if Amtrak ran like the SNCF. On the other hand, it's just not that hard to get from New York to DC. The notion, now bruited about, that infrastructure is destiny has the mythic undertone of a certain Kevin Costner baseball movie. The bulk of technological, medical, biological, etc. progress still occurs in a few wealthy nations, ours included. The now-popular notion that our "best minds" decided to go into finance instead of research is . . . well, you'll pardon me, anecdotal. Most people who work in finance and banking aren't very bright, and the supposed mathematical complexity of their newfangled investment vehicles is hyped and overblown by an innumerate media. Not all successful con men are geniuses--most are just street-smart and improvisatory.

9 comments:

NutellaonToast said...

I've never heard that one before, that the smarties are all going to finance these days. Is that really a common thought or just Friedmanspeak?

I mean, shit, if the bankers are so fucking smart how come they couldn't even realize that housing prices can't continue to double every four seconds forever? I saw that coming a mile away and I've never even taken an econ course.

SteveB said...

if the bankers are so fucking smart how come they couldn't even realize that housing prices can't continue to double every four seconds forever?

It's not that they didn't realize the bubble would burst, it's that they all figured they would have their fortunes made - and safely deposited in the Cayman Islands - by then. And, for at least the biggest players, that plan worked out just fine. Sure, you can find lots of quotes from "financial analysts" to the effect that housing prices would continue to increase forever, but that was just for the rubes.

fledermaus said...

Meanwhile, what was the last major technological or scientific innovation to come out of China? This is a serious question.

I'd bet they've come up with a bunch of awesome data mining/surveilance tools with the help of our corporate overlords. You know the FBI, NSA and the rest of the alphabet soup is salivating at the thought of getting their hands on that swag.

David Chappell said...

Well, he wasn't really in China, he was in Hong Kong which does have a very shiny airport, pretty good infrastructure and a relatively high per capita income. And the highest concentration of Rollers in the world though the average apartment size (very few proper houses) is around 350 sq ft. A foreigner has to get a visa to enter China proper and, vice versa, a Mainlander has to get a visa to enter Hong Kong.

That said, however, you are right.

Happy Jack said...

Meanwhile, what was the last major technological or scientific innovation to come out of China?

They did develop TD-SCDMA, a 3G cellphone standard. Can't say if it will ever work or not.

I noticed that Friedman said the next few months would be the most important time in all of history. I take it he's never Googled himself.

b-psycho said...

The media doesn't realize the real purpose of said complexity anyway. It was to confuse people into blowing their money, nothing more.

almostinfamous said...

I noticed that Friedman said the next few months would be the most important time in all of history.

that's like the chorus to each verse of his horrid poetry. i wonder if tom friedman is related to paula nancy millstone jennings...

Anonymous said...

Thomas H. Friedman is the Ben Stein of "serious" global capitalist aficionados.

Mike

Keifus said...

Nice. We get a hell of a selection bias on this continent(many Chinese scientists work here, and publish in Western journals), but I am sure that the number of brilliant Chinese is commensurate with their billion-plus.

On the other hand, the handful of journals put out by Chinese universities are just remarkably crappy. (Which is another selection bias really: any high-quality work would go to some better-known publication.)

K (er, but isn't the Chinaman not the issue here, dude? What's wrong with your commenters?)