Friday, February 13, 2009

Career Training

Paul Krugman says "these aren't normal times." Picking apart hoary clichés is like answering rhetorical questions, but still. We wonder: just when were those normal times?

David Brooks says, "In normal times, Americans would have been skeptical of proposals to double or triple the size of federal programs, but amid the economic fear, that skepticism fell away." Which, I suppose, is an answer of sorts.

Krugman is arguing for more money-to-the-moon, and Brooks isn't arguing anything so much as he is strolling the grounds of the Sanitarium in his bathrobe, but in either case one finds at base that charming American affection for a fanciful status quo, a deep-seated sense of sentimental nostalgia for an ineffable era of good feelings, decent profit margins, peace on earth, goodwill toward men, &c.

Such magical stability, to which we're supposed to aspire to return, is paired with an equally magical condition called "sustainable growth." The idea being that there are no real upper bounds to production, consumption, and the accumulation of wealth in a properly run society, so long as the pace of the increase is judiciously monitored. While I hesitate (or, I guess: I don't hesitate) to raise the specter of a crackpot Malthusianism, it seems to me that there may in fact be a point at which growth, as popularly defined, does indeed become unsustainable, and surely the enemy of anything we might mean by stability.

Our present troubles stem more from an imbalance between our declining productive capacity (as opposed to "productivity") and our increasing consumptive activity, and insofar as folks like the Krugster recognize this, they advocate investing our money in tangible economic activity--roads and bridges and hospitals and schools and so forth--while reorganizing our financial institutions so that they can again become agents for saving, reasonable lending, and modest investment rather than the main players in a vast speculative free-for-all. That's all fine and well, but seems to ignore the larger question of what happens next, in the medium and longer terms. With a few discrete exceptions, our principle economic activity neither makes much nor does much. What will all the out-of-work middle managers be doing in 2012, assuming Jerry Bruckheimner's MayanAztec Sungod doesn't consume the world first?

42 comments:

Dunc said...

What will all the out-of-work middle managers be doing in 2012

Soylent Green is people!

Christopher M. said...

Right. The conventional wisdom would have it that since Western civilization didn't crumble into a Soylent Green-style Malthusian apocalypse in the 1970s, then we can have our eternal economic growth and eat it, too, with a neverending cycle of production and consumption. But back on planet earth, it sure seems like we live on a finite planet with finite resources, and that planet seems to be getting hotter as we fill it up with billions of new consumers. It seems like the plan, then, is for Krugster and company to secure indefinite economic growth at least until after they die, and then leave the rest of us holding the bag. And you can't fault them for it; it's been working for hundreds of years.

Anonymous said...

assuming Jerry Bruckheimner's MayanAztec Sungod doesn't consume the world first?


you assume too much.

Abidemi said...

At the risk of getting a little too technology will save us all! for IOZ's more-cynical-than-thou commentariat:

Unless you think everything that can ever be invented has already been invented, there will always be room for growth. We can do a hell of a lot more with our finite resources now than we could fifty or a hundred years ago. There's no reason to assume this will stop being true in the future.

So long as that sun's still burning, the Earth is not a closed system, and the second law of thermodynamics will not doom us to squabbling over the scraps of our once-great civilization in our Mad Max future.

SteveB said...

an ineffable era of good feelings, decent profit margins, peace on earth, goodwill toward men...

Or, more succinctly, the Kondratiev A-cycle.

Montag said...

the second law of thermodynamics will not doom us to squabbling over the scraps of our once-great civilization

"What are you trying to tell me? That I can dodge bullets?"

"No, Neo. I'm trying to tell you, that when you're ready, you won't have to."

Mr.Fundamental said...

is trap.

you know how you want to answer, you just can't, because despite the rhetoric it's a real question. anyone without cant cannot answer, because they have no idea, nothing to work with or from. we don't know. we won't know.

show what you know, and then we'll make fun of you.

drink up, bitches.

IOZ said...

Unless you think everything that can ever be invented has already been invented, there will always be room for growth.

The advance of knowledge and technology and the continuation of economic growth aren't don't necessarily imply one another.

Anonymous said...

"That's all fine and well, but seems to ignore the larger question of what happens next, in the medium and longer terms."

important to consider that our nation already underwent such a keynsian makeover (WWII), only the increased military spending, which did stimulate the economy, was never replaced by private sector growth. what resulted was the military-industrial complex, which has kept our economy afloat for decades.

so perhaps we already fired the keynes bullet seventy years ago, but never adressed the very question you're asking today. i'm not sure this means more won't work in the short term ($800b is a lot of money, even in america); but the question of what happens when an already bloated keynsian nightmare does this is an interesting one.

Mr.Fundamental said...

you should have included a link to

http://www.ted.com/index.php

or whatever.

mextremist said...

His name is Quetzalcoatl, he is not technically a Sungod, and on the behalf of millions of cosmic mongrels in these savage southern lands, fuck Jerry Bruckheimner.

Christopher M. said...

Unless you think everything that can ever be invented has already been invented, there will always be room for growth.

Sorry, dude, but the Singularity will not be coming in time to die for our sins.

Abidemi said...

The advance of knowledge and technology and the continuation of economic growth aren't don't necessarily imply one another.

They sure have in the past. Ask the cotton gin.

No reason to assume they will fail to do so in the future, unless you're committed to a we're all dooooooooooomed mindset.

Sorry, dude, but the Singularity will not be coming in time to die for our sins.

Jesus Christ, you people are predictable.

Christopher M. said...

Jesus Christ, you people are predictable.

We're predictable? Who's the one who made little hand-wavy motions at "solar-powered technology will somehow save us all" without any actual evidence to back it up?

Anonymous said...

Hoary cliches and rhetorical questions 'ey?
What will ANYBODY in America be doing in 2012?
Starving? Stealing? Whoring? Running? Hiding? Working on a chain gang? Rotting in an American gulag?
Serving the Master Rulers?

pkd said...

The gummint will find 'em jobs.

fledermaus said...

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!


Apparently TNR's new line is that it's all the Left's fault that the simulus package sucks. If only the same group with political beliefs that have been margalized for the last 30 years or more had put more pressure on Obama it would be better.

You can't make this shit up.

Anonymous said...

The advance of knowledge and technology and the continuation of economic growth aren't don't necessarily imply one another.


They sure have in the past. Ask the cotton gin.

I would say "the advance of knowledge and the continued sustainability of economic growth don't necessarily imply one another. Just ask the cotton gin."


I know you got going on the riff of economic growth vs. sustainability, but i was looking more forward to some good old IOZ commentary on the "normal times" "good old golden age" situation, you know, the consitutional republic days when everybody had a chicken in the pot, politicians were honest, and our society would never never have thought of committing genocide or anything (maybe pre-1630s?)

SteveB said...

Unless you think everything that can ever be invented has already been invented, there will always be room for growth.

The answer is no, but the reason's more complicated than the knee-jerk pessimism on offer here.

All industries become less profitable as they mature and reach overcapacity, but capitalism has always been able to counteract this effect by constantly creating new industries. The problem is that, in late-stage capitalism, the period between the introduction of a new industry and its reaching maturity/overcapacity gets shorter and shorter.

As opportunities to earn an acceptable rate of profit dry up, all available capital floods into new, profitable industries, producing a quick boom-bust cycle instead of a longer period of steady growth.

Eventually, capital flees all productive industry because it can only find the desired rate of profit in financial speculation, resulting in the "financialization" of the economy. Boom-bust cycles become more and more frequent, trillions of dollars slosh around the world desperately seeking an acceptable rate of return, and then...

Well, I don't know what comes next. Does anyone?

Anonymous said...

All I know is that since Obama's election, the police state is momentously on the run all around the globe, and that anyone who harbors any skepticism to the contrary is an adolescent poseur who looks at a glass of tomato juice and pretends to see only maggots.

Anonymous said...

Well, I don't know what comes next. Does anyone?

the realization that reality does not play out according to long dead philosophers and anxious to play king for a day economists?

Anonymous said...

realization that reality

i severed one of my fingers in punishment for that.

SteveB said...

anyone who harbors any skepticism to the contrary is an adolescent poseur who looks at a glass of tomato juice and pretends to see only maggots.

The maggots are real, my friend. You have the U.S. Department of Agriculture's word on that.

Aaron said...

Elementary my dear Watson. They will emigrate and open laundries or Motel-6es or convenience stores in the provincial cities of the next global economic superpower. Somewhere with agricultural as well as industrial capacity and a farflung network of merchant elite.

(Or the age of capital may really be coming to a crashing halt, in which case no point in prognosticating).

Christopher M. said...

knee-jerk pessimism

Nothing knee-jerk about it. Global population's projected to hit nine billion by 2050; atmospheric CO2's projected to hit 1000 ppm by the end of the century. There are no plans on offer in Congress to stabilize greenhouse gas levels at or below 350 ppm, and that's just our own country - getting China and India to stop burning coal and oil will be something else.

In the meantime all these new construction projects will require... um... construction, which involves stuff like materials and resources, which involves things like chopping down lots of trees and blowing up lots of earth. "Green job" talk to the contrary, deforestation, habitat loss, erosion and water scarcity don't get much better when your bulldozers are solar-powered. Our basic economic assumptions require more people consuming more stuff faster and faster; our basic ecological assumptions point us in the opposite direction. We listen to the economists, though, because there's money to be made.

Mike said...

What will we all be doing in 2012?
That's easy.
Arguing about and defending/attacking The Big O's right to a second term
And, or course, blawgging!

Anonymous said...

"The maggots are real, my friend" Quite true, just pick them out of your chunky peanut butter adolescent sandwich.

Mr.Fundamental said...

the world is my petri dish; cantstop wontstop.

that's a pound of CO2 emitted for every pound of PCC poured.

drink up, bitches!

Anonymous said...

What would all those middle managers be doing in 2012? Surely you jest. They would be doing something else.

The idea of perpetual growth or "progress" that lies at the heart of our current world view is, I agree, the main tragedy here. Like, we are not the universe, much as we insist on believing otherwise.

SteveB said...

Nothing knee-jerk about it. Global population's projected to hit nine billion by 2050; atmospheric CO2's projected to hit 1000 ppm by the end of the century. There are no plans on offer in Congress to stabilize greenhouse gas levels at or below 350 ppm, and that's just our own country - getting China and India to stop burning coal and oil will be something else.

Yes, looking back on it, I'd say "knee-jerk pessimism" is the wrong phrase. More like "knee-jerk disdain for anyone who shows any signs of optimism."

There are good reasons for pessimism, as you point out, and I don't doubt that "we're fucked" is the perfectly rational response to our situation. My choice not to be pessimistic (and it is a choice) is a perfectly irrational one. But history has been changed by people who decide to do the irrational thing and oppose much more powerful interests, and then, inexplicably, win. But you have a right to your pessimism, I'm not denying anyone that.

The idea of perpetual growth or "progress" that lies at the heart of our current world view is, I agree, the main tragedy here.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I don't believe in "perpetual" progress. I think progress is something people work for, and usually fail at.

MC Knee-Jerk Dis-Dane said...

Yes, we have knee-jerk disdain for jerks who piss and moan on blogs about pessimist jerks. Well spotted.

g-nome said...

Mr. Fun, did you just say you were going to buy everyone shots? I'll have a Jameson. And the bartender needs your credit card.

Mr.Fundamental said...

Let your frustration out the gate and watch the pony run
One double, for the hunger and the struggle
Two for the fool tryin to pull apart the puzzle
Three now I smile while I wait for your rebuttle
By the fourth shot, I'm just another child in a bubble

Coldtype said...

“Well, I don't know what comes next. Does anyone?”
-SteveB

Well, sure.

Saurs said...

"But history has been changed by people who decide to do the irrational thing and oppose much more powerful interests, and then, inexplicably, win."

Strictly speaking, history can't be changed. Unless progressive, placard-wielding do-gooders have recently chanced upon a time machine, that is.

Now tell us what "the irrational thing" might be, and then go on and define "powerful interests," "inexplicably," and, most importantly, "win."

Ink only, 30 minutes, no conferring.

Cüneyt said...

Actually, the Nazis fit that description, don't they? At least, until they got powerful, moneyed backers.

SteveB said...

And so, once again, Professor Godwin is vindicated, in only 36 comments. A new record!

Anonymous said...

If you count suicide in a bunker "winning," I suppose.

Anonymous said...

"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell."

- Edward Abbey

paul from the clue-by-four said...

And so, once again, Professor Godwin is vindicated

What, Mike Godwin got a chair somewhere while I wasn't looking?

Cüneyt said...

Oh, fuck you, Stevie. You miss my point entirely. I wasn't comparing anyone to Hitler. I was just saying that your quote perfectly describes both progressive, populist movements and, well, regressive populist movements. That's the Pandora's box of politics. I wasn't making a point aside from that, nor comparing anyone here or elsewhere to the Nazis.

Cüneyt said...

Oh yeah. Let me add:

You fucking Nazi.