Here is an article in which Christopher Hitchens warns, "For decades, we have wondered what might happen when or if an apocalyptic weapon came into the hands of a messianic group or irrational regime. We are surely now quite close to finding out." More or less par for the course, no? Except: he goes on, beginning with the very next sentence, to lay out a perfectly cogent argument for what would happen when or if such weapon came into the hands of said group, an argument for their behaving fully rationally.
He then proposes that the real danger of a nuclear-armed Iran would be the possible annexation of Bahrain, against which the would would have no recourse, as Iran could now engage in "nuclear blackmail." Among possibilities not entertained: that Iran wishes to deter the United States from military aggression. Cf. Iraq, Afghanistan, which in addition to sharing the unenviable quality of being targets for America's goofy martial ire happen to sit on either side of Iran. Cannon to the left of me, cannon to the right.
Also unexamined: the possibility that Iran is not in fact pursuing nuclear armaments.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Oh My God She's Gone Totally Sane!!!!!!
Labels:
Hitchens,
Iranian hijinks,
Nukes
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13 comments:
i, the journalist, have figured it out! with no intimate knowledge of the people, institutions, or inner-workings of the government(or the humility to acknowledge my previous incorrect assessments),i hereby boldly declare i have predictive power for the actions of Iran! behold my genius!
There's a reason that possibility was left unexamined and that is that it is not a real possibility. Perhaps you were also one of the geniuses who believed them when they said they weren't helping insurgents in IRAQ?
oh baby, hit me one more time.
I can help...
"We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence that the halt, and Tehran’s announcement of its decision to suspend its declared uranium enrichment program and sign an Additional Protocol to its Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement, was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work.
Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005. Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously."
Key judgments from a National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's Nuclear Activity, 2007
Perhaps you were also one of the geniuses who believed them when they said they weren't helping insurgents in IRAQ?
Who cares, fucknut? Good for them! I'd do the same if Canada and Mexico were invaded by a hyperpower that kept trying for a chance to do the same to us.
I don't post much but I'd just like to say how much I enjoy your BLAWG -- even the pants on head loony regulars.
"For decades, we have wondered what might happen when or if an apocalyptic weapon came into the hands of a messianic group or irrational regime. We are surely now quite close to finding out."
I give you Gaullist France.
Hitchens will never go sane but at least he doesn't include something really wacky like Iran might want nukes to deter Israel, let alone the United States, from annihilating them. But at least he's right in worrying about what would happen if nukes ever got into the hands of an irrational regime who might drop nukes and kill a few hundred thousand people after that country had already decided to surrender.
PS. I also give him credit for worrying about the annexation of Bahrain. I've been losing quite a bit of sleep over that possibility myself.
(IOZ, your regular commentators give me the willies. with their tin foil pants all up on their heads an' shit.)
Iran is a signatory of the non proliferation treaty. India is not. &c...
(see how those reg'lars do, flying off on totally unrelated tangents? next thing you know Mr. Fun will be back quoting britney spears or some shit.)
too bad irony is dead (sigh)
i fucked irony's dead corpse in the comment section at Who is IOZ? .
hey, not every comment can be "win," can it?
What I wanna know is, when are Hitchens's "Mullahs" going to talk to the American people. You know, bring us up to speed with their end of things. What sort of dog Mrs. Mullah bought for the kids and so forth.
dance, bitches.
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