Friday, June 19, 2009

Red Satrap, Blue Satrap

Without belaboring the comparison, I note a further similarity between Mir Hussein Moussavi, much-beloved in America at the moment, and His Regnant Majesty, Barack Obama, which is this: that his appeal has very little to do with any discontinuity with the policies of the past. Moussavi is not as stylistically conservative as Ahmedinejad, just as Obama was not as stylistically conservative as George W. Bush. Regarding the substance of their views, however, there is less distinction. Just as Obama has largely ratified Bush-era policies, especially in the realm of foreign policy, despite cloaking it all in a mystifying gauze of renovated sentiment, good-will, and forensics-team oratory, so too does Moussavi hew largely to the standard Iranian line on Iran's rightful place in the region, their right to pursue a nuclear energy program, etc. etc. To the green-hued groupies of the Andrew Sullivan set, what's appealing about Moussavi is the same as what's appealing about Obama--he appears to be one of us, not some hidebound hick who's grown too big for his britches.

Of course, Ahmedinejad denies, sort of, the Holocaust, in which sacrosanct direction every Muslim must genuflect lest he become the newest of our new-new Hitlers. This is surely in poor taste, as the Holocaust surely did happen, although we note that Mahmoud's hedged, Mel Gibsonian chatter about the depredations of the Third Reich is easily matched in nuttiness by certain prominent Jews. I sometimes wonder what would happen to Sino-American relations were the Chinese to impose similar demands on American politicians regarding the behavior of Imperial Japan in Manchuria, proclaiming that merely regretting Japanese visits to war-dead shrines and circumlocutions regarding past atrocities are wholly insufficient, and requiring that each American president proclaim the unique and unparalleled barbarity of the Japanese occupation and all its attendant evils. Or what if every newly elected Russian president came to the United States to lay a ceremonial wreath and utter memorial banalities at the head of the Trail of Tears.

Well, I'm digressing. What the Western interlocutors for the Iranian opposition propose in their merry-go-rounds of self-reassurance is that what the Iranian nation and people really want for themselves is at root the same thing that we in the titular West really want for them, and of them, which is to say compliance and complicity in our own hare-brained regional schemes. Underlying it is the still-simmering frustration at the Iraqis for failing to do what we gave them the opportunity to do, even if we were a bit . . . clumsy in the execution. Viewed dispassionately, Iran's elections represented a domestic struggle between a relatively more liberal and moderately less nationalistic urban class and the less affluent, less educated, more traditional population outside of Iran's cities, Tehran in particular. This tension, the dispassionate observer might note, remains one of the principle sources of internal political tension even in most of the world's advanced democracies, despite the fact that the ruling élite, regardless of their stylistic predilections, share certain assumptions and a certain consensus about how to run the country and how the country ought to interact with the rest of the world.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

I don't think it's clear that the conservative rural people support Ahmadinejad. There are some supposed experts claiming that this is no longer true.

I have no idea who's right--there are multiple experts who seem to flatly contradict each other in ways that suggest they're letting their prejudices dictate how they interpret the facts. (Yes, I know, shocking.) It's predictable that the press will turn it into a morality play where the allegedly pro-Western democracy lovers are battling a ruthless anti-Western government, but that doesn't mean everything they say is false.

Donald

IOZ said...

Who are these experts?

Anonymous said...

Here's a column with a link to other columns--

link

Christopher M. said...

And here's a column that disagrees with that column. And here's yet another.

It should be noted that Mousavi's strategy was never to win over the rural provinces of Iran, which pretty much everyone had written off as Ahmadinejad territory - indeed, his plan wasn't even to outright beat Ahmadinejad on the first ballot. It was merely to get enough votes from the cities to get his campaign close enough to force a run-off. Not only was this plan a bit of a stretch, it now seems clear that Mousavi realized this at the time, as he was laying the groundwork for his post-election protests weeks before the ballot by claiming any loss would be the result of fraud.

Cüneyt said...

Orhan Pamuk had an old essay that touched on the universality of such clashes between the rural traditionalists and the new bourgeoisie. Of course, since then, Hrant Dink has been assassinated by rightwing terrorists with ties to the Turkish state. A lot has changed, but I do think this dynamic is pretty routine, by now, this pattern of enfranchised, entitled, Westernized professionals and the bumpkins largely left out of the new economy. I can't help but be the only one in my social circle out of step on the whole Iranian thing. I want revolution there (and many places besides), but this whole thing doesn't look like it'll change a fucking thing. I don't want to face a world where all we've got is Shah and SAVAK or Ayatollah and religious court. But maybe that's where we're headed.

Aaron said...

Bunny Lebowski: I'll suck your cock for a thousand dollars.
Brandt: Ah hahahahaha! Wonderful woman. We're all, we're all very fond of her. Very free-spirited.
Bunny Lebowski: Brandt can't watch, though, or he has to pay a hundred.
Brandt: Ah haha. That's marvelous.
The Dude: Uh, I'm just gonna go find a cash machine.

Jenny said...

Okay, you'll probably write it off as mainstream media,but here's an NY Times op ed from a student in Iran: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/19/opinion/19shane.html

Adam said...

http://www.distantocean.com/2009/06/barack-obama-naderite.html#comments

drip said...

clashes between the rural traditionalists and the new bourgeoisie are familiar to americans. It's just that in the US, there are no longer 11 million more rural traditionalists than new bourgeoise, so America's rural traditionalists riot in Miami and Palm Beach, while it's the lawyers and accountants in Tehran and Islamabad.

Anonymous said...

Holocaust denial is the mark of a truly depraved human being. Whatever else I may think of them, I am grateful no American politician of either major party would ever stoop that low.
Oh, wait a minute, just heard something about the Armenian Genocide….

Robert Kelly said...

OK, there's a lot wrong with this. He denies, sort of, the Holocaust. Well, thank god for that! At least he's not a full blown Holocaust denier, like that David Duke guy he invited to speak in the country.

Well, the big mistake you make is assuming that this is about Mousavi. It's true that if elected, Mousavi would probably be a rather ineffectual "reformer" -- a candidate who was already approved by the authorities, well within the theocratic milieu. He is one of the authorities, in fact. There's probably more truth to your Obama comparison than at first glance. Obama is change, he is a reformer, who also just happens to be the leader of the Democratic Party, the biggest group of institutional wankers in American history. But the movement, the revolution as it were, is larger than that. Mousavi is more of a figurehead, a symbol of something concrete in an abstract struggle.

Your other mistake is thinking of this as just about class. It's clear, I think, that it's not simply the more liberal urban class against the traditional population. The rural areas are conservative but they also want reform. The demonstrations are drawing in large numbers of people beyond class boundaries, etc. Really, what we're seeing is something much larger and it has to do with what appears to be a fundamental breakdown in the Iranian state. The opposition is claiming that the Ahmadinejad faction seizing power in this way amounts to a military coup, a militarization of the Iranian state ala Egypt or Pakistan. It's not so much liberal reformers vs. conservative traditionalists, but wide sectors of the population resisting the entrenchment of a sort of mafia gangster clique of Ahmadinejad, the Basiji thugs, the Revolutionary Guards, et al. who benefit from a closed system like the mafia benefits from prohibition, or cracklords benefit from the drug war.

Christopher M. said...

"The rural areas are conservative but they also want reform."

And they identified that reform with Ahmadinejad, not with Mousavi, whom Ahmadinejad effectively tied to eminently corrupt slimeball Rafsanjani. You'll notice that those poor rural voters are not protesting in the streets - despite your claims of demonstrations that have reached "beyond class boundaries", the demonstrations themselves have been limited to Tehran. An actual mass national uprising would, one would think, be a bit more national.

dhex said...

oh dov hikind. a source of comedy, drama, dramedy, absurdity and shittiness. the full package, as it were.

Cüneyt said...

Just like McCain voters wanted reform.

The devil, you say, but that's the thing. Reform is a word with no meaning. What matters is reform of what and to what.

And we'll see how much this movement crosses class lines. So far, I don't think it's as popular a revolt as 1979.