Who Is IOZ?: Sabbath Cynic

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Sabbath Cynic

Well, anyway, now the question remains, will there be revolution in Egypt? People seem to be under the impression that it's already happened. And it's hard to see a downside in seeing an old bastard like Mubarack shown the door. Fortunately, I am very good at seeing the downside. Now Egypt is under the nominal and actual control of an America-funded military junta. To those who are eager to pronounce this a victory of spontaneous, self-organizing people-power over the forces of state tyranny, I feel ya. But I caution caution.

28 comments:

Jack Crow said...: Well, the strikers and occupying masses haven't gone home.; 9:00 AM
Anonymous said...: I second the motion.

The prospect of a MusBro theocracy promptly embroiling Egypt into a war with Eretz, even less appetizing still...

Capt'n Obvious; 9:01 AM
ran said...: "The prospect of a MusBro theocracy promptly embroiling Egypt into a war with Eretz, even less appetizing still..."

good thing there's zero chance of that happening; 10:08 AM
ran said...: though Egypt could conceivably cease playing their part in the despicable strangulation and collective punishment of the Gaza Strip, which Israel could take as an act of war.; 10:29 AM
Montag said...: my thoughts exactly, IOZ, but as long as what Jack Crow points out holds true, i am heartened by reports that the military rank and file was reportedly reluctant to open fire on the crowds of protesters. maybe there's room to hope(!) US influence may be limited where the rubber meets the road (where the boot meets the face?) in this situation.

but yeah, plenty of space on the downside.; 10:36 AM
Todd S. said...: Well, I wish they would go home. I wish they'd go home and start living their lives with regard to one another as if the state didn't exist. Not holding out hope for that though. I expect there will be a US-approved transitional leadership in place before too long.; 10:40 AM
William said...: I thought that too: "They're celebrating a military junta?"; 11:27 AM
lambert strether said...: FWIW, my take on the junta/coup talking point is that it's meant to discredit the achievement (and keep us mired in despair). I don't think that's how the Egyptian revolutionaries view it. If the transition goes sour, we might look back on it and use those words. But the situation is still fluid and dynamic and may remain so. If the SCAF issues a timetable for elections, and if they then stick to the timetable, and the elections are in fact free and fair (unlike our own, I might add) then no, there will have been no coup. So there are metrics for this. I realize that the state isn't withering away here, but better than Mubarak.; 11:32 AM
davidly said...: ...better than Mubarak.

If not in the "that's what they want you to believe" category, it's certainly akin to saying that pancreatic cancer is not as bad as a recently excised tumor.; 11:55 AM
rob payne said...: This whole affair has swung on what the Egyptian military would do. If Mubarak is senile and suffering dementia as some suggest than it seems likely that the military has been running the Egyptian government for some time already. I’m reminded of Reagan, our first vegetable prez. And look who is running our foreign policy, the Pentagon.; 12:26 PM
Anonymous said...: We had Vegetable Woodrow Wilson, too. His wife did the damage when he was no longer up to it.

drip; 1:13 PM
Cüneyt said...: Todd, living as if doesn't always work so well. People must organize in order to thwart organization. They must be ready to defend each other's rights. I'm glad they're staying out. They are living as if they are the state. Which, of course, all of us are, with our action or inaction.; 1:38 PM
Peter Ward said...: Well, if the Egyptians have failed to pull off some significant improvement (or start the ball rolling at least), we're all fracked--because it's been one hell of a revolt.

By the way, I'm not sure why the military junta would achieve more now than they did with a ruthless, US-funded dictator in command.

Finally, I'm all in favor of sentimentalizing what the Egyptians have done even if the millennium fails to come (or whatever would make this qualify as a revolution)--that is, they have done something meaningful and that has value, whatever history has in store. And I don't mean as martyrs--since a suicidal outcome wasn't, and still isn't, guaranteed.; 1:41 PM
William said...: "The Armed Forces Supreme Council, in charge after the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak, said it was committed to a democratic process resulting in civilian rule but urged respect for the reviled police forces that had brutally clashed with protesters in the early days of the uprising."

lolz; 2:18 PM
demize! said...: Please Israel takes it as an act of war if someone Arab farts in their general direction.; 3:21 PM
TGGP said...: "Now Egypt is under the nominal and actual control of an America-funded military junta"
Because that's so very different from Mubarak's regime.

If I were to play Devil's Advocate for the optimists, there has been a demonstration that people in the street can pressure the military into removing an unpopular leader. This could mean both they will be emboldened to do so again, and that future leaders may have second thoughts about doing things to make their populace pissed at them.; 3:30 PM
Anonymous said...: What I'd like to know is, how representative of the entire Egyptian population are the people who've participated in this revolution, showed up in the square? I know all the action hasn't been in Cairo, that there've been sympathy strikes elsewhere, etc. But who are the revolutionaries -- disgruntled professionals, working class people, day laborers, all of the above, what? Without a better idea of at least that much, I wouldn't hazard a guess about how this will finally play out. And I really, really doubt that your basic hotel lounge "foreign correspondent" talks much to anybody without at least a BA.
-- sglover; 3:42 PM
Kafka said...: I've read reports that some junior officers have been insubordinate and that senior officers have feared insurrection from the younger officers for some time. If the military starts fighting amongst itself I'm guessing there will be widespread score settling at all levels of society. I'm curious also of how much tension/cooperation there is between the military and the secret police...; 3:57 PM
Lysander said...: As a transplanted Egyptian myself, I take IOZ' caution seriously, but...I think they have the stiuation under control. Of course the generals can't be trusted with spare change, much less a whole country. That's not where the action's at. While Muuby had the benefit of running a nation of quiet sheep (until the last month, or so) these new guys have to deal with 80 million alley cats with sharp claws and minds of their own.

And what do the junta guys have going for them? Lots of Saudi bribe money and American weapons. Other than that, they have soldiers and junior officers more likely to shoot them if ever ordered to shoot the crowds. And an internal security force that either deserted and joined the crowds or got routed in some bare knuckle brawling.

I say its hard to (re)build a police state with those ingredients.

I could be wrong. The road ahead isn't paved with roses and licorice. But things look a whole lot brighter today than they did this time a month ago. Anyway, it wont be long before it's put to the test. Sooner or later some journalist or writer is going to write "these junta guys really suck ass." Or something like that. We'll see if they arrest him, and if they do, whether the people go back to their sheepish ways or start shouting. (In Tunisia, they burned a police station last week, after the police shot a couple of demonstrators. a very hopeful sign IMHO)

Viva La Revolucion.; 7:11 PM
Justin said...: I know what you mean, Todd. Christ, these damn protesters are slowing down traffic in Egypt!; 8:25 PM
Anonymous said...: Thank you. That's all I wanted. It wasn't an ideologically prescriptive comment.; 9:22 PM
Soj said...: Damn, creepy how EVERYONE is suddenly so worried that the people of Egypt, who just faced down Mubarak, can't handle a transition military junta that's been in power oh... 48 hours?

Sheesh. What's done is done and cannot be undone, and if you think some future Mubarak clone is rubbing his palms together in anticipation of getting to be the new dictator, then I believe you're sadly mistaken.; 11:36 PM
Ethan said...: Egypt ain't done yet.; 1:00 AM
davidly said...: Damn, creepy how EVERYONE is suddenly so worried that the people of Egypt, who just faced down Mubarak, can't handle a transition military junta that's been in power oh... 48 hours?

I suppose that by "everyone" you mean almost everyone commenting on this thread. What I see otherwise is a gaggle of bloggers, many whose opinions I respect, forwarding the "they wouldn't fire on their own" meme and largely ignoring the bloodshed and deaths of the fired upon in some surreal analysis that the military in charge of a "transition to democracy" is a fucking victory.

Meanwhile, urging everyone to go the fuck home, all is done here; and a prime minister whose main objective is "security".

I see a mass delusion virus at work. And I am nowhere near "everyone".; 6:21 AM
Ethan said...: If you actually listen to what Egyptians themselves are saying, you'll know that the celebrations were specifically just because Mubarak left, they know the fight's not over, they're not willing to leave it to the military, and no one is going home.; 10:43 AM
Charles F. Oxtrot said...: I suppose that by "everyone" you mean almost everyone commenting on this thread. What I see otherwise is a gaggle of bloggers, many whose opinions I respect, forwarding the "they wouldn't fire on their own" meme and largely ignoring the bloodshed and deaths of the fired upon in some surreal analysis that the military in charge of a "transition to democracy" is a fucking victory.

If that's what they're saying, rather than what you're reading between their lines, then I would wonder why you "respect" them.; 6:00 PM
Phil Simms said...: Um, I thought the Revolution wasn't going to be televised!; 6:19 PM
demize! said...: I posted this at smbiva but they aren't publishing my comments because I said something derogatory about cOP's self indulgent blather, but I think that whomever takes power will find enormous external fightback if The Rafah crossing is dismantled. Of course this is obvious, but if the stance vis a vis Israel is really changed that will be the either the birth or death of a new paradigm.; 8:04 PM

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Sabbath Cynic

28 comments:

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